Supporters of the Magpies are more and more viewing Eddie Howe's side as a fickle friend. On their day, they prove to be the very entertainers, producing breathtaking performances. Yet, on other occasions, once-dependable players like Sandro Tonali and others completely go missing.
Compounding these problems is a second-half strategy suffused by a distinct element of disorganization. Before their trip to Manchester United, the statistics paint a troubling picture: the team has dropped thirteen crucial top-flight points from winning situations this term and are yet to keep a shutout in 10 straight outings across all competitions. Earning a win at Old Trafford would be only their second-ever league success on the road this season.
On the flip side, defeat has been tasted on one occasion in their last 6 league encounters, and despite sitting in a seemingly lowly eleventh position, they are a mere six points off the coveted Champions League places. Consider an upcoming two-part Carabao Cup last-four clash against the reigning champions and a strong opportunity of advancing to the European Cup last 16, and it is easier to understand the gaffer's guarded optimism.
“It's not only about problems,” remarked the team's manager. “You can see strengths as well. The perspective here is decidedly half full at present. I understand others could have a different opinion, but I feel we are improving.”
The puzzle persists: will this group match – or perhaps exceed – the heights of the previous campaign's cup glory and European-qualifying finish? Juggling a congested schedule makes this difficult.
This fatigue may account for the failure to sustain a stellar opening 45-minute showing against Chelsea, eventually surrendering a 2-0 advantage to tie 2-2. Likewise, it is possibly the explanation for a poor performance in a painful loss to local rivals Sunderland, where the team seemed lethargic just a short time after a grueling Champions League excursion.
Although on-field instruction is undoubtedly Howe's strength, the relentless schedule of twice-weekly football has drastically limited valuable practice time. This hinders the team's tactical adjustment to operating with summer signing their number nine leading the line, rather than the now departed Alexander Isak. While hugely skilled, the German forward has not shown the equivalent electric counter-attacking pace or ferocious pressing.
In fact, the team's previously effective high press has occasionally broken down. Injuries to key cog Joelinton have been a factor, while high-profile arrivals Anthony Elanga and the English midfielder have had difficulties settling after their combined £90m+ transfers.
If a move to a three-man defense might arguably assist the team, a full-blown defensive injury list renders that unlikely. First-choice full-backs will be missing for the next key fixtures, further testing the team's depth.
When playing at their energetic peak, they appear almost unstoppable. The problem is maintaining that level for the full 90 minutes. The often-seen plan B of sitting back into a deep-lying defensive shape has at times been counterproductive.
“The Chelsea match became anarchic at two-all,” admitted the manager. “But we were going for the victory. We always try to win.”
What seems required is a balanced approach – one featuring better ball retention, a engine room adept of slowing the pace, and a pragmatic readiness to sometimes accept a draw. However, a desire to compete on all competitions is pushing limited player options to their limit.
This might sound sacrilegious to some, but a different strategy in the cup competitions in the initial stages could have eased the current schedule pile-up. With vital European and league games on the agenda, the need to carefully prioritize is becoming increasingly clear.
Eddie Howe recognized the size of the challenge ahead. “When you're at a club of this size, the expectations are enormous. Each game is critical. There is progress to be made in the Premier League. We are in the Carabao Cup semi-finals, we want to progress in the Europe and do well in the FA Cup.
“The direction is in the right direction, but we have a great deal of improvement to do to transform into the consistently successful side we envision. Our capacity to string together winning runs has eluded us so far.
“The challenge is to hit those heights we know we're capable of. I believe that the assurance to achieve it is returning. But now we have to demonstrate it. It's not all doom and gloom in this moment, but the next few weeks will determine a great deal.”